Comet ISON Has 30 Percent Chance of Surviving Encounter With The Sun

On Nov. 28, astronomers have confirmed that Comet ISON will pass within a million miles of the Sun's surface.

Johns Hopkins University scientist Carey Lisse said there's a chance that people in the U.S. will get an "interesting cosmic show" if the comet doesn't survive its encounter with the sun.

"It's going to get heated, it's going to get stressed by the solar gravity, many of us think it's going to break up into pieces, some people think it won't survive at all if it's too small. Other folks think it will come back out again," said Lisse, during a NASA news conference.

Lisse said ISON has around a 30-40 percent chance of surviving its solar orbit.

The comet, which is only three-quarters of a mile across, is packed with ice and dust.

"The reason we study comet ISON to begin with is it's a relic," Lisse said. "It's a dinosaur bone of solar system formation. You need comets in order to build the planets. This comet has been in a deep freeze half way to the next star for the last four and a half billion years. It's just been coming in over the last few millions years and possibly even started around the dawn of man."

Jim Green, director of NASA's planetary science division, confirmed that ISON's trip is likely "millions of years" in the making.

Green added that the comet has become the most observed in history due to its potential demise.

"It's a special comet," he added. "It's probably the first time it's come in from a very long distance away - right at the edge of what our sun's gravity can hang on to. It may have taken millions of years to get to this location."

Five telescopes, including the Hubble Space Telescope, have been used to examine and track ISON. The Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter has also been used to view ISON as well, according to Green.