Autonomous driving vehicles are envisioned to populate roads of the future, but today's safety concerns are doing the reality-check.
RAND Corporation published a report highlighting the need for self-driving cars to be driven "hundreds of millions of miles" before their safety reliability is established. Sometimes, it could even be for "hundreds of billions of miles."
The research, authored by Nidhi Kalra and Susan M. Paddock, questioned the safety of autonomous vehicles and cited the idea of test-driving them under real traffic conditions. While such approach is deemed logical, the researchers questioned its practicability.
'Hundreds of Millions of Miles': Impractical
Considering key findings, test-driving is indeed impractical. This is tied to the assumption that the methodology alone would be insufficient in demonstrating safety potential.
"Under even aggressive testing assumptions, existing fleets would take tens and sometimes hundreds of years to drive these miles - an impossible proposition if the aim is to demonstrate their performance prior to releasing them on the roads for consumer use," the study said.
Why Self-Driving Cars
In the United States, over 33,000 people die on roads each year, Ars Technica noted. The outlet cited data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, which saw human factor as the critical cause in about 94% of recorded vehicular crashes.
This observation, among other promising ones, prompts tech giants and the public to look into innovative ways of road transportation - hence the hype for self-driving cars. Inherent in their conceptualization is the desire to reduce and possibly eliminate road anomalies.
Rethink
However, RAND Corporation's research tells us to take a step back and rethink alternatives. "These results demonstrate that developers of this technology and third-party testers cannot simply drive their way to safety. Instead, they will need to develop innovative methods of demonstrating safety and reliability."
The research claims that such alternatives are not limited to simulations and virtual testing. The authors suggest development of adaptive regulations designed to evolve with technology for optimum advantage and risk management.
The full research text may be viewed here.
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