Morgan Stanley auto analyst Adam Jonas posted a note that the EV manufacturer Tesla will miss its 2020 target by a large margin.

Company CEO Elon Musk set a target of 500,000 units, a goal that Jones believes isn't a likely target. The analysts said that the real number will be closer to 300,000 vehicles, or 40 percent less than Musk's expected target.

Jonas, is one of Tesla Motor' biggest fans on Wall Street, said the biggest drag on Tesla sales will be the cheap, mass market Model 3, expected to hit showrooms now in 3 years or so, according to a report by CNN.

Jonas doesn't believe that Tesla will be able to sell the Model 3 in the $35,000 range as a number of analysts have been expecting. He thinks the vehicle will instead be available for closer to the $50,000 to $60,000 range.

"While nobody buying a Model S today (for nearly $105,000) is doing so to save on their monthly expenses, the longer-term story is far more dependent on the volume success of the Model 3," he wrote in the note. "Oil price is a factor for Model 3."

This hasn't caused Jonas to stop recommending that investors should buy Tesla shares. He did trim his price target from $320 a share to a new target of $290 a share, which would give investors a better than 50 percent gain.

The Model III is expected to make its official debut in 2017

Tesla announced last week that an upgrade of its first mode, the Roadster, can drive 400 miles on a single charge. This is the longest operating range yet for the automaker's all-electric vehicles. The extended range comes from a combination of improved battery technology since the vehicle was first introduced in 2008, along with lower-friction tires and aerodynamics.

Unfortunately only 2,500 vehicles are in existence that can receive the upgrade, according to CNN.

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